Overview
- After the sixth round of the World Cup qualifiers, the journey to North America 2026 sees many teams’ chances of qualifying dwindle.
- This analysis projects the probabilities of each team securing a direct spot or a playoff berth, considering their historical performance, current situation, and remaining matches.
Recent Matches Recap
- Colombia won against Paraguay as a visitor.
- Ecuador defended their home ground and won against Chile.
- Uruguay scored three goals against Bolivia.
- In the American Superclasico, Argentina won against Brazil with Otamendi’s goal at the Maracaná.
- Peru and Venezuela drew in Lima.
Standings and Progress
- Argentina leads, followed by Uruguay and Colombia. Venezuela and Ecuador are in good positions, while Brazil surprisingly holds the last direct qualification spot. Paraguay is in the playoff position, with Chile, Bolivia, and Peru in the bottom three.
- Compared to the previous qualifiers for Qatar, Argentina and Uruguay have started strong, while Brazil has underperformed. Venezuela’s progress is notable, doubling their points from four to nine.
Future Projections and Probabilities
- Argentina has a 99.99% chance of direct qualification. Their future matches in 2024 seem favorable, but they will face strong opponents like Uruguay and Brazil in 2025.
- Uruguay, under coach Bielsa, has a 99.7% chance of direct qualification, with Darwin Núñez leading as the top scorer.
- Colombia has not lost a match yet, with a 98% chance of direct qualification under coach Néstor Lorenzo.
- Venezuela, having never played in a World Cup, holds a 55% chance of direct qualification, with a crucial set of matches in 2024.
- Ecuador has a 95% chance of direct qualification, with a challenging schedule ahead.
- Brazil faces a crisis with only a 99.4% chance of direct qualification, with important matches coming up in 2024 and 2025.
- Paraguay is in the playoff spot with a 10% chance of direct qualification.
- Chile and Bolivia have lower chances, with Chile having a 25% chance of reaching the playoffs.
- Peru has had a disastrous start, with only an 8% chance of direct qualification.
Conclusion
- The road to the 2026 World Cup is still long with 12 more match days remaining, where every match will be crucial for the teams’ chances of qualifying.